Donald Trump’s Presidency: Economy, Law, and Society (2025-2028)
The Heritage Foundation, a think tank that supports the Republican Party and the American right-wing agenda, has drafted detailed policies for Donald Trump’s governance, beginning from his first day in office in January 2025 to 2028. This comprehensive document spans over 900 pages and cost $22 million to prepare. The policies cover all areas of government, divided into five main sectors: governance, defense, welfare, the economy, and independent agencies. In terms of form and content, the preparation is well-done. However, based on Trump’s first term experiences, his campaign promises, and the internal and external challenges the U.S. faces, these policies may be difficult to fully implement by the end of his second term in 2028.
The Seven Priorities Trump Pledged During His Campaign (Announced in His Victory Speech on November 6, 2024)
Trump made a simple pledge: “Promises made, promises performed.” He promised that his administration would fulfill these commitments:
1. Deporting Undocumented Immigrants and Building a Border Wall with Mexico: Implementing this policy will face significant legal challenges and will cause rifts in American society. The logistical cost burdens will slow U.S. economic growth, especially as the country is currently dealing with high public debt, an increasing budget deficit, and a decreasing annual economic growth rate.
2. Economic, Tax, and Tariff Measures: If the policies are carried out as Trump announced, with a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, and up to 60% on Chinese imports, the U.S. could find itself in a confrontation that weakens its global standing. Previous tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term on steel and aluminum imports were met with resistance from European allies, Canada, and Mexico, and the U.S. lost that economic battle. On the tax front, Trump plans to reduce corporate taxes, but a more progressive tax approach could better address the country’s weak economic indicators and potentially strengthen the Democratic Party’s position.
3. Pardon for the January 6th, 2021 Rioters: This would involve pardoning those who stormed the Capitol in support of Trump. Such a move would undermine the principle of justice in the U.S. and damage long-standing American traditions of fairness.
4. Firing Special Counsel Jack Smith: Trump has promised to dismiss Jack Smith, the special prosecutor handling two criminal investigations into him, within seconds of taking office.
5. Ending the War in Ukraine in 24 Hours: Trump claims that the U.S. should have the power to end the war, which he believes it started. While this goal may be noble, it suggests that the U.S. could have the sole ability to halt the conflict. It indicate that the USA caused the war and can easily stop it also.
6. No Ban on Abortion: In 2022, the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, overturned a ruling that legalized abortion. Trump believes the issue should be left to individual states to decide.
7. Reducing Climate Change Regulations: Trump previously rolled back several environmental protections during his first term, and he is expected to continue reducing regulations aimed at tackling climate change.
Views of Stakeholders Affected by Trump’s Policies
1. Undocumented Immigrants: Immigrants targeted for deportation are confident that U.S. law will protect them, and they are likely to pursue legal challenges. Deportation is expensive and logistically complicated, creating a significant internal societal challenges.
2. Tariffs on Imports: Countries around the world have their own mechanisms for imposing tariffs on U.S. imports, and previous tariff battles during Trump’s first term primarily benefitted other nations. The U.S. faced a trade deficit of around $850 billion annually during Trump’s presidency. Additionally, businesses and large corporations do not see the election of Trump as a major factor in shaping their investment strategies, as the market is more responsive to economic and financial factors rather than the identity of the president. If needed, they can adjust their strategies in response to changes in Trump’s policies. The BRICS countries are likely to play a larger role in the global economy, posing a significant challenge to Trump’s economic and financial policies.
3. Legal Controversies: Trump’s legal priorities will likely generate significant legal debates, especially in states controlled by the Democratic Party, which will challenge some of his policy decisions.
A Period of Uncertainty
Trump’s upcoming presidential term will be filled with unpredictable changes and challenges. Ultimately, this could lead to a more multipolar world, dominated by a new Cold War, some aspects of which may become hotter. His policies will likely represent a dramatic retreat from globalization and the economic systems that the U.S. and the world had previously embraced.
Prof. Dr. Hussein Suleiman Mohamed Ahmed
Alehterafy Global Center for Sustainable Economic Development Consultancies
November 12, 2024